Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies...

— —

Yuri G. Raydugin (Risk Services & Solutions Inc, Risk Services & Solutions Inc, Principal Consultant)

Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects

Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies

Yuri G. Raydugin (Risk Services & Solutions Inc, Risk Services & Solutions Inc, Principal Consultant)

$195.95

Hardback

Not in-store but you can order this
How long will it take?

Availability Information

We source books from suppliers in Australia and overseas. For books we don't currently have in stock, the time it takes to get them from our suppliers can vary widely - from a few days to a few months - so we check each book with each supplier to determine the expected time it will take to be supplied to us.

We then advise you accordingly. If the time taken to get any book is too long for you, you can let us know and we will cancel or adjust your order, and refund as required.

To find out the anticipated arrival time for specific items prior to ordering, please contact us by phone or email:

Phone +61 2 9264 3111, or 1800 4 BOOKS (1800 4 26657) if outside Sydney:
option 1 Abbey's Bookshop (Crime, History, Science, Kids & more) • info@abbeys.com.au
option 2 Language Book Centre (ESL & Foreign Languages) • language@abbeys.com.au
option 3 Galaxy Bookshop (Sci-fi, Fantasy, Romance, Graphic Novels) • sf@galaxybooks.com.au

QTY:

English

Oxford University Press
29 July 2020

Real analysis, real variables; Probability & statistics

Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in majority of cases. Apparently, the referred methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects overlooked are the components associated with structural and delivery complexity.

Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding.

Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable to forecast project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects including notorious projects-outliers: it has a much lower systematic error.

The power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects. Results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned.

All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.

By: Yuri G. Raydugin (Risk Services & Solutions Inc Risk Services & Solutions Inc Principal Consultant)
Imprint: Oxford University Press
Country of Publication: United Kingdom
Dimensions: Height: 254mm, Width: 172mm, Spine: 25mm
Weight: 882g
ISBN: 9780198844334
ISBN 10: 0198844336
Pages: 376
Publication Date: 29 July 2020
Audience: Professional and scholarly , Undergraduate
Format: Hardback
Publisher's Status: Active

1: High-level overview of project risk management 2: Conventional PRM Methodologies 3: Overview of conventional risk quantification methods 4: Overview of unconventional risk quantification methods 5: Project Zemblanity business case (I): linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis (L-SCRA) 6: A brief introduction to system dynamics 7: Project system dynamics: a linear case 8: Introduction to project complexity 9: Interactions in a project system 10: A project structure subsystem (PSS) 11: A project delivery subsystem (PDS) 12: Project system maturity evaluation 13: Non-linear multipliers for risk interactions 14: Non-linear Monte Carlo modeling requirements 15: Project Zemblanity business case (II): non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis (N-SCRA) 16: Project system dynamics: a non-linear case 17: Spin-off discussions on project complexity 18: Conclusion

Dr Yuri G. Raydugin is Principal Consultant of Risk Services & Solution Inc., a Canadian consulting company. Yuri worked for Royal Dutch Shell, TransCanada Pipelines, SNC-Lavalin, and Saudi Aramco, managing risks of several megaprojects. He has been involved in risk management of projects with combined budget of about $150B. Yuri has an engineering degree in nuclear physics from Urals Polytechnics Institute, Russia, a PhD in physics and mathematics from Russia's Academy of Sciences, and an MBA in business strategy from Henley Management College in England. He is a member of the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of Alberta (APEGA) and Saudi Council of Engineers (SCE).